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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [9]. Core Viewpoints - The rapid progress in the merger and acquisition of leading brokerages reflects a clear regulatory encouragement for top brokerages to grow stronger through consolidation [3]. - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is expected to create a brokerage with a scale comparable to top international investment banks, with significant room for improvement in profitability compared to CITIC Securities [3]. - The combined entity will enhance its international presence, potentially becoming the Chinese brokerage with the widest coverage along the "Belt and Road" initiative [3]. - The goodwill risk from the merger is manageable, with the combined goodwill amounting to 40.71 billion yuan, which is only 1.25% of the combined net assets [3]. - The report recommends focusing on brokerages that are under the same actual controller and those expected to benefit from market-driven mergers and acquisitions, specifically highlighting Guotai Junan, Zheshang Securities, and Guolian Securities [3]. Summary by Sections Merger and Acquisition Progress - The merger process has shown a significant acceleration, with key milestones achieved in under three months [3]. - The timeline includes various approvals and announcements, demonstrating a streamlined approach to the merger [3]. Financial Metrics - As of the end of Q3 2024, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities had total assets of 931.9 billion yuan and 693.2 billion yuan respectively, with net assets of 166.4 billion yuan and 161.2 billion yuan [3]. - Post-merger, the new entity's total assets will be only 6.6% less than CITIC Securities, indicating a strong competitive position [3]. International Expansion - The merger will enhance the international business capabilities of the new entity, with a focus on major global financial markets [3]. - The report anticipates that the new entity will significantly increase its contribution from international business, aligning with top-tier global investment banks [3]. Goodwill and Risk Management - The report assesses the goodwill risk as controllable, with a detailed breakdown of the goodwill and impairment provisions related to the merger [3]. - The analysis suggests that the merger will create synergies that could lead to improved performance and resilience [3].