KUNLUN ENERGY(00135) 交银国际证券·2025-01-10 01:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.08, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the warm winter has slightly impacted retail gas sales, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy. The core earnings for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [2][5]. - The company is expected to see a retail gas sales growth of 8.6% for the full year of 2024, despite a year-on-year decline in natural gas demand starting November 2024 [5]. - The LNG receiving station's utilization rate for 2024 has been adjusted down by 1 percentage point to 89% due to a projected 1% year-on-year decline in natural gas imports [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Kunlun Energy are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 188,386 million - 2025E: RMB 202,300 million - 2026E: RMB 215,037 million [4][14]. - Net profit estimates have been revised to: - 2024E: RMB 6,466 million - 2025E: RMB 7,216 million - 2026E: RMB 7,883 million, reflecting decreases of 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [4][14]. Operational Data - The forecasted gas sales volume is expected to grow as follows: - 2024E: 32.9 billion cubic meters - 2025E: 35.9 billion cubic meters - 2026E: 38.8 billion cubic meters, with growth rates of 8.6%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [6]. - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase to 3.27 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 52% [6]. Dividend Policy - The management has set a dividend payout target of 43% for 2024, increasing to 45% in 2025, with expected dividend yields of 4.4% and 5.1% respectively, which remains attractive [5].