绿色转型对中国不同区域的影响报告

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant socio-economic challenges posed by the green transition in coal-dependent regions of China, particularly in Shanxi Province, which holds over 20% of the country's coal reserves and employs 37% of the national coal workforce [11][12] - It highlights the need for a coordinated national mechanism to support regions like Shanxi in their transition away from coal, ensuring that the impacts of the green transition are addressed equitably across different provinces [13][14] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report outlines China's commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, indicating a shift away from coal dependency [11] - It predicts a direct loss of 320,000 to 330,000 jobs in Shanxi's coal sector between 2025 and 2030, with potential reductions of 96%-98% in coal labor by 2060 under various scenarios [12] Chapter 1: Research Background - The chapter discusses the uneven progress of green transition across different regions in China, with significant disparities in resource endowments and socio-economic development [18][20] Chapter 2: Analysis of Key Transition Regions - This chapter assesses the regional distribution of coal resources and employment, identifying Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi as critical areas facing severe employment challenges due to their reliance on coal [22][30] - It notes that Shanxi's coal employment numbers are significantly higher than other provinces, with 800,000 workers in the coal sector, which is four times that of Henan [30] Chapter 3: Economic and Employment Impacts of Energy Transition in Shanxi - The chapter details the contribution of coal to Shanxi's economic growth, noting a strong correlation between GDP growth and coal consumption [48] - It highlights that the coal sector's revenue contribution to the industrial sector has increased, reaching 42% by 2022 [50] Chapter 4: Transition Experiences from Domestic Regions - This section presents successful transition experiences from other resource-dependent cities, emphasizing the importance of diversifying the economy and stabilizing the labor market during structural changes [12][14] Chapter 5: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests establishing a regional support mechanism at the national level to mitigate the differentiated impacts of the green transition and encourages pilot explorations in key transition areas [13][14] - It advocates for policies that promote economic diversification and support for affected workers, including job placement services and social security enhancements [13][14]