轻工行业：造纸景气度底部修复，关注下游需求表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the light industry sector [1]. Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a bottom recovery in its economic cycle, with a focus on downstream demand performance [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing price pressures in the pulp and paper sector, with a slight recovery in waste paper demand [3]. - The report suggests that the central government's proactive stance may lead to continued policy support for economic and domestic demand, positively impacting the paper industry [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Raw Materials - Pulp prices are rebounding, while waste paper prices have slightly retreated. As of January 8, 2025, the prices for ARAUCO needle pulp and broadleaf pulp were $795 and $570 per ton, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +4.61% and -12.31% [8][19]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper was 1,570 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of -0.57% [41]. 2. Cultural Paper - Continuous price increases are observed, with double-glue paper and double-copper paper averaging 5,413 yuan and 5,530 yuan per ton, respectively, as of January 8, 2025 [51]. - The report notes that the price trends are supported by strong pricing intentions from paper mills and a reduction in inventory levels due to increased orders from the publishing sector [51]. 3. Packaging Paper - White card paper prices have stabilized due to supply reductions, with an average price of 4,300 yuan per ton as of January 8, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of -10.04% [76]. - The report indicates that the consumption of white card paper from January to November 2024 totaled 742.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of +2.77% [80]. 4. Living Paper - The average price of living paper was stable, with local paper companies in Shandong facing production cuts, while competition in Hebei kept prices under pressure [41]. - The report emphasizes that the overall demand for living paper remains relatively weak, with significant competition affecting pricing [41]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pulp and paper sector, such as Sun Paper, Yueyang Forest Paper, and Hengan International, among others [1].