特朗普2.0跟踪系列研究之一：五大方面，重新审视特朗普“新政”

Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's government faces internal contradictions, including conflicts between establishment Republicans and MAGA supporters, which may hinder policy implementation[1] - The Republican majority in the House is slim, with only a 2-seat lead (217 to 215), making it vulnerable to defections that could block legislation[1] - The MAGA faction's interests conflict with those of tech elites like Elon Musk, complicating Trump's domestic policy execution[1] Group 2: Trade and Tariffs - Trump's proposed tariffs include a 10% additional tax on all imports from China and a 25% tax on goods from Mexico and Canada, affecting approximately 40% of U.S. imports[21] - The likelihood of significant upfront tariff increases on China is low due to inflation concerns and a more moderate stance from Treasury Secretary Bessent[21] - Targeted tariff increases may occur in phases, with potential implementation starting in early 2025 as leverage in trade negotiations[27] Group 3: Foreign Policy and Conflict - Trump's assertion that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end within 24 hours lacks a clear strategy, and Russia has rejected proposed peace agreements[32] - Geopolitical interests, such as NATO expansion and control over the Black Sea, complicate the feasibility of a quick ceasefire[33] Group 4: Energy Production - U.S. oil production may not see significant increases due to cautious attitudes from producers and high marginal costs, with breakeven prices around $70 per barrel for new production[2] - Despite potential policy incentives, the actual growth in U.S. oil output is expected to be limited by supply-demand dynamics and cost structures[2] Group 5: Immigration Policy - Large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants faces significant challenges, including high costs estimated at $88 billion annually for deporting 1 million individuals[2] - Historical data shows that the average annual deportation rate since 2000 is about 289,000, indicating that Trump's ambitious targets may be unrealistic[2]