APAC Technology_UBS Tech Views_ CES kicking off, Microsoft capex comments, China smartphone subsidies and TSMC 2nm schedule updates

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the APAC Technology sector, with key events such as CES 2025 and updates on AI, PC gaming, and semiconductor developments [4] - CES 2025 is expected to feature over 4,000 exhibitors and 138k+ attendees, with keynotes from NVIDIA, Intel, Samsung, and AMD [4] - The report highlights Microsoft's planned $80 billion investment in data centers for AI and cloud-based applications in FY2025, with over half of the investment in the US [4][16] PC and Gaming Sector - NVIDIA is expected to launch RTX 50 gaming GPUs during CES 2025, focusing on PC gaming and AI advancements [4] - Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are also expected to launch AI PC platforms, targeting both high-end and mainstream markets [4] - The PC market is projected to grow by 6% YoY in 2025, recovering from a flat to -1% YoY performance in 2024 [4] - Top picks in the PC space include Asustek, ASMedia, and Gigabyte [4] Semiconductor and Hardware - TSMC's 2nm process is on track, with wafer production starting in Q425 and output expected in H126 [15] - TSMC is expected to maintain a high market share in 2nm technology, serving major clients like Apple, Mediatek, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD [15] - NVIDIA's GB200 racks are expected to ramp up at ODMs in Q125, with GB300 ramps launching in June 2025 [4] China Smartphone Market - China may extend consumer subsidies to smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, potentially boosting sales [5] - Smartphone sales in China declined by 9% YoY in November 2024, lagging behind the global growth estimate of 4% YoY [6] - The subsidy program could offer 15-20% of the retail price, up to 2,000 RMB per purchase, benefiting companies like Mediatek, Semco, ASE, and TSMC [6] Key Companies and Updates - Apple is offering discounts of up to 500 yuan on its latest iPhone models in China to compete with domestic rivals like Huawei [5] - Mediatek's next flagship Dimensity 9500 processor, launching in H225, may use TSMC's N3P process instead of N2 [7] - NVIDIA and Qualcomm are considering switching to Samsung's 2nm process for cutting-edge chips due to high costs and limited production capacity at TSMC [7]