美国12月劳动数据解读：劳动市场短期韧性可能使货币政策先紧后松

Labor Market Overview - Non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, significantly above the median expectation of 165,000[4] - Unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, slightly below expectations, with a decrease of 235,000 in unemployed individuals to 6.886 million[19] - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.93% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28%[4] Economic Implications - The labor market shows signs of resilience, with a potential transition from slowdown to a more balanced state[6] - The strong performance in the service sector continues to support the "strong economic data + high uncertainty" trading strategy[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts in January, observing the impact of Trump's policies[6] Risks and Considerations - Risks include the acceleration of the labor market and unexpected liquidity issues in the banking system[1] - The potential impact of Trump's immigration policies could further reduce labor supply, affecting unemployment rates[19] - The labor market's marginal improvements may not be sustainable amid tightening monetary policy and high uncertainty[6] Market Reactions - Following the labor data release, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 7.4 basis points to 4.764%, and the dollar index increased by 0.44 to 109.6567[24] - U.S. stock indices declined, while gold prices showed resilience, rising by 0.76% to $2,689.755 per ounce[24]