SIA(600009) 辉立证券·2025-01-12 10:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company with a target price of RMB 37.85, representing a potential upside of 14.35% from the current price of RMB 33.1 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue has recovered to 112% of the pre-pandemic levels, while net profit has only reached 30% of the pre-pandemic levels, indicating a significant gap in profitability recovery [1]. - The international flight market has rebounded significantly, with passenger throughput increasing by 150% year-on-year, contributing to the overall recovery of the company's operational metrics [2]. - Non-aeronautical revenue has been adversely affected by a substantial decrease in duty-free income, which fell by 49.62% year-on-year in Q3 2024 due to revised agreements impacting sales commission rates [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 9.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of RMB 1.2 billion, up 142% year-on-year [1]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 3.127 billion and net profit of RMB 387 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% and 6.2% respectively [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 22.44%, a slight increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, although still significantly lower than the 51.68% margin in 2019 [8]. Market Recovery - The recovery in the aviation market is evident, with Pudong Airport's flight takeoffs and landings, passenger throughput, and cargo/mail throughput recovering to 103%, 99.6%, and 105% of the 2019 levels respectively [2]. - Domestic routes have shown even stronger recovery, with metrics reaching 117.7%, 119.8%, and 101.7% of the 2019 levels [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in international passenger traffic, which is expected to drive both aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue growth [9]. - Projections for net profit from 2024 to 2026 are RMB 1.78 billion, RMB 2.44 billion, and RMB 2.91 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.72, RMB 0.98, and RMB 1.17 [9].