贝莱德：2025全球投资最新展望-拥抱风险，聚焦美股及新兴板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on U.S. equities, with a preference for short to medium-term bonds, particularly European bonds, while being cautious on European and UK stocks [1][7][9]. Core Insights - The global stock market performance in 2024 is expected to be mixed, with Japan's Topix index rising approximately 20%, while China's A-shares are recovering after a downturn, and European markets showing modest returns close to 10% [1][3]. - The bond market is anticipated to see a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury prices due to inflation concerns, although global investment-grade and high-yield bonds are expected to yield positive returns [1][4]. - The artificial intelligence investment theme is projected to remain strong, with the Nasdaq index expected to rise by 30% in 2024, validating the investment value in AI [1][5][6]. - The report suggests embracing risk in 2025, particularly in U.S. equities, due to strong corporate earnings growth and ample liquidity, despite high valuations [1][10][15]. Summary by Sections Global Stock Market Performance - In 2024, Japan's Topix index is projected to rise about 20%, while China's A-shares are expected to recover due to government support, and European markets are likely to yield close to 10% returns [1][3]. Bond Market Outlook - The U.S. 10-year Treasury is expected to decline in price due to rising inflation concerns, but global investment-grade and high-yield bonds are anticipated to provide positive returns [1][4]. Artificial Intelligence Investment - The AI theme is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with the Nasdaq index projected to increase by 30% in 2024, reinforcing the investment thesis around AI [1][5][6]. Asset Allocation for 2025 - The report favors U.S. equities for 2025, with a cautious stance on European and UK stocks, and a preference for short to medium-term bonds, especially European bonds [1][7][9]. Risk and Opportunity in U.S. Equities - Despite high valuations, the report believes that transformative trends like AI will reshape the economy and capital markets, leading to strong earnings growth for U.S. companies [1][10][15]. Sector Focus - Besides technology, the healthcare and financial sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, particularly benefiting from U.S. economic resilience and potential regulatory easing [2][20][23].