发展中国家外部金融脆弱性分析（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The dominance of the US dollar as an international payment method has significantly increased, maintaining its strong position as a store of value and reinforcing its role as a global pricing unit. This has substantial financial implications for the US and countries heavily reliant on the dollar, particularly developing nations [15][17][19]. - The analysis highlights the shift in the global financial landscape post the 2008-2009 financial crisis, where capital markets, particularly the bond market, have become the primary source of financing, surpassing the traditional banking system [37][43]. - The report emphasizes the growing external financial vulnerability of developing countries due to their reliance on dollar-denominated debt and the impact of international financial conditions on their economies [19][50]. Summary by Sections Abstract - The abstract outlines the increasing importance of the US dollar in international finance and its implications for developing countries, particularly in the context of changing international financial flows post-global financial crisis [15]. Introduction - The introduction discusses the central role of the US dollar in the international financial system established by the Bretton Woods Agreement and its continued dominance despite challenges [17]. Section I: The Advantage of the Dollar - The dollar remains the most important international reserve currency, with no evidence suggesting a challenge to its dominance in the near to medium term. Data shows that from 2001 to 2020, the dollar's international usage was nearly three times that of the euro and significantly higher than other currencies [21][24]. Section II: International Capital Markets as a Source of Funding - The report notes that from 2000 to 2023, the issuance of debt securities by the non-bank sector increased from $1.5 trillion to $12.9 trillion, highlighting the growing role of capital markets in providing global liquidity [37][39]. Section III: Consequences of Dollar Hegemony - The analysis indicates that the majority of external debt is issued in US dollars, with the share of dollar-denominated debt rising from 53.9% in 2005 to 69.7% in 2022, underscoring the financial vulnerability of developing countries [29][34]. Section IV: Analysis of External Balance Sheets of Developing Countries - The report discusses the increase in foreign currency liabilities without a corresponding rise in foreign currency assets, leading to heightened financial vulnerability for non-financial corporations in developing countries [42]. Section V: Conclusions - The conclusions summarize the findings, emphasizing the need for developing countries to manage their external financial vulnerabilities in light of their reliance on dollar-denominated debt and the implications of global financial conditions [19][50].