化工行业周报：三代制冷剂毛利继续扩大；供应偏紧推动烧碱价格上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to the significant reduction in the production quota for second-generation refrigerants and a slight increase for third-generation refrigerants in 2025 [5] - The price of caustic soda has risen due to tight supply, with a notable increase in profit margins for caustic soda producers [4] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The profit margins for third-generation refrigerants continue to improve, with production quotas for second-generation refrigerants reduced by 49,600 tons year-on-year, while third-generation quotas increased by 43,400 tons [3][5] - As of January 12, 2025, the profit margins for various refrigerants are as follows: R22 at 21,495.78 CNY/ton (down 32 CNY), R142b at 1,666.78 CNY/ton (up 594 CNY), R125 at 23,062.75 CNY/ton (up 165 CNY), R32 at 26,941.13 CNY/ton (up 499 CNY), and R134a at 26,242 CNY/ton (up 403 CNY) [3][27] - The price of solid caustic soda in China reached 3,859 CNY/ton as of January 9, 2025, an increase of 154 CNY (4.33%) from January 2, 2025 [4] 2. Detailed Product Price Tracking - Among 58 monitored products, notable price increases were observed for butadiene (9.89%), solid caustic soda (4.33%), and R134a (3.53%) [13] - The price of TDI increased slightly, while MDI prices remained stable due to maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities [16] 3. Chemical Raw Materials - The price of phosphoric acid and diammonium phosphate showed slight declines, with diammonium phosphate priced at 3,530 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [20] - The price of urea decreased to 1,639 CNY/ton, down 39 CNY from the previous week, while potassium chloride prices increased slightly to 2,521 CNY/ton [21]