2024年北京房地产市场回顾及2025年展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Beijing real estate market, particularly in the office and logistics sectors, driven by institutional investor activity and market demand [3][28]. Core Insights - The Beijing office market saw a continuous increase in relocation transactions, with significant demand from the TMT sector, while the retail property market remains active with ongoing upgrades to older projects [3][11]. - The logistics market is experiencing heightened demand for cost reduction and upgrades, with a notable shift towards lower-cost alternatives [3][16]. - The overall property investment market is characterized by a balanced distribution of transaction types, with institutional investors accounting for over half of the transaction volume [3][28]. Summary by Sections Office Market - In Q4 2024, two new projects in Zhongguancun and Lize added 129,000 square meters of office space, but the total new supply for the year was only 192,000 square meters, a 74% decrease year-on-year [5]. - New leasing demand decreased by 5% year-on-year, but relocation transactions accounted for 80% of new leasing area, setting a historical record [5]. - The TMT sector was the primary driver of new leasing demand, followed by the financial sector, which saw a decline due to industry consolidation [5][20]. Retail Market - The retail property market welcomed four major shopping centers in Q4 2024, bringing total new supply close to 1 million square meters for the year [11]. - Consumer spending faced pressure, with a 2.8% year-on-year decline in total retail sales, particularly in dining and apparel sectors [12]. - The average rent for shopping centers decreased by 1.2% for the year, with non-core areas seeing more significant adjustments [13]. Logistics Market - The logistics market recorded a total new supply of 332,000 square meters in 2024, with a negative net absorption of -93,000 square meters for the year [16]. - The demand for third-party logistics was significant, accounting for 35% of new leasing area, while traditional manufacturing demand declined [16]. - The average rent fell to 50.8 yuan per square meter per month, with a year-on-year decline of 9.2% [17]. Investment Market - In Q4 2024, the property investment market recorded 16 transactions totaling 9.93 billion yuan, a 129% increase quarter-on-quarter [28]. - Institutional investors accounted for 51% of the transaction volume, reflecting a shift in buyer composition [28]. - The report highlights a growing interest in retail properties and industrial logistics, with a more balanced distribution of asset types in transactions [28][29].