新茶饮再掀港股递表潮！带头大哥古茗控股：市场饱和，增长失速，肆意扩张的日子一去不返

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The new tea beverage market in China has seen significant growth, with a market size reaching RMB 149.8 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [2] - Despite being a leading player in the new tea beverage sector, the company faces challenges such as market saturation and declining growth rates [1][59] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 79.5% of the shares [8] Company Overview - The company, founded in April 2010, is positioned as the second-largest player in the new tea beverage market, primarily relying on a franchise model for expansion [8][15] - As of the end of 2023, the company claims to be the largest brand in terms of GMV and store count within the "popular" price segment, which ranges from RMB 10 to 20 [9][12] - The company has a market share of 9.1%, significantly lower than the leading brand, which holds 20.2% [13] Business Model - The company's revenue is heavily dependent on franchise sales, with nearly 80% of its income derived from selling products to franchisees [17] - The franchise model allows for rapid expansion with lower operational risks, but the company has faced challenges in maintaining growth in store openings and same-store sales [25][54] - The average operating profit margin for franchise stores is reported at 20.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 10%-15% [32] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 6.441 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, but the growth rate has significantly slowed compared to previous years [50] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was RMB 1.417 billion, reflecting a mere 2.6% increase, indicating a decline in growth momentum [51] - The company experienced a net increase of only 776 franchise stores in the first three quarters of 2024, a significant drop from 1,908 in the same period of 2023 [54] Market Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a trend towards lower prices, with many leading brands reporting a decline in average transaction values [48] - The company's strategy of regional concentration has resulted in 79% of its stores being located in second-tier cities or lower, which may limit its growth potential in more lucrative urban markets [40][41] - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a high number of franchise stores leading to challenges in achieving market dominance [46]