央行再次释放坚定稳汇率信号

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75, the highest level since its introduction in 2016[2] - This adjustment allows enterprises and financial institutions to have a larger cross-border financing space, optimizing their asset-liability structure and enhancing domestic dollar liquidity[2] - The PBOC's toolbox for exchange rate policy includes various instruments such as offshore central bank bills and foreign exchange risk reserve ratios, indicating potential future policy releases[2] Group 2: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level, with expectations of fluctuations between 7.1 and 7.3 against the USD[2] - Factors influencing the RMB/USD exchange rate include nominal economic growth rates in China and the US, which are expected to provide positive support[2] - The current environment for the RMB is significantly different from the 2018-2019 tariff period, with the US now in a rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the previous rate-hiking cycle[2] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential misunderstandings of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions from the PBOC, and unforeseen tariff impacts from the US[2][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring these risks as they could affect the stability of the RMB and overall market conditions[16]