12月进出口数据解读：出口维持高增，进口小幅回升

Export Performance - In December, China's exports reached $335.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.7%, up from 6.7% in the previous month[1] - The export growth rate for the entire year of 2024 is projected at 5.9%[1] - Exports to the US increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.6%, contributing 2.18 percentage points to overall export growth[1] Import Trends - December imports amounted to $230.8 billion, with a growth rate of 1%, recovering from a decline of 3.9% in the previous month[1] - The annual import growth rate for 2024 is expected to be 1.1%[1] - Key imports showing significant growth include copper and copper products (21.7%), integrated circuits (12.98%), and natural and synthetic rubber (11.8%)[1] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for December was $104.84 billion, an increase from $97.44 billion in the previous month[1] - The total trade surplus for 2024 is projected to be $992.16 billion[1] Market Dynamics - The high export growth in December was supported by preemptive purchasing due to tariff uncertainties and labor strike risks at US ports[1] - Global external demand remains stable, as indicated by the December PMI index at 49.6%, slightly down from 50%[1] Product Categories - Mechanical and labor-intensive product exports showed varying degrees of recovery, with mechanical product exports growing by 12.1% and labor-intensive products by 5.7%[1] - High-tech product exports continued to decline, with a growth rate of 4.3%[1] Future Outlook - The baseline export growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 2.1%, with potential scenarios ranging from 3.6% in an optimistic outlook to a decline of 5.7% in a pessimistic scenario due to increased tariffs[1] - Factors supporting continued export growth include gradual global recovery, improved product competitiveness, and the expansion of new trade partnerships[1]