海外宏观周报（2025年第2期）：强劲就业表明通胀威胁已全面取代衰退

Employment Data - The U.S. job market showed significant improvement, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 256,000 in December, exceeding expectations of 160,000[11] - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased to 4.09%, down from 4.23% in November, with the number of unemployed persons falling by 236,000 to 6.884 million[24] - Job vacancies rose to 8.098 million in November, with a vacancy rate of 4.8%, marking a six-month high[20] Inflation Concerns - Despite a slight decline in wage growth, inflation concerns remain high, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.93% year-on-year in December[12] - The Michigan University survey indicated a rise in inflation expectations, with one-year and five-year expectations increasing to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively[12] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates once in 2025, with expectations for no further rate cuts rising[13] Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down by 1.94% and the Nasdaq down by 2.34%[4] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 17 basis points to 4.77%[4] - Global inflation trading patterns have re-emerged, reflecting heightened concerns over inflation across various markets[15]