消费品以旧换新：规模和效果测算

Group 1: Policy Overview - The 2025 consumption upgrade policy aims to expand the scope of subsidies for old-for-new exchanges in consumer goods, particularly in home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics[5] - The total subsidy scale for 2025 is estimated to reach around 500 billion yuan, which is expected to boost the retail sales growth rate by approximately 1.7 percentage points[5][6] Group 2: Home Appliances - The subsidy scale for home appliances is projected to be 154.8 billion yuan, which could drive consumption by 276.2 billion yuan, contributing to a retail sales growth of 0.56 percentage points[25] - The estimated replacement demand for traditional home appliances in 2025 is around 150 million units, with a total sales value of approximately 647 billion yuan[18][25] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - The subsidy for consumer electronics is estimated at 135.8 billion yuan, expected to generate 263.1 billion yuan in consumption, leading to a retail sales growth of 0.54 percentage points[26] - The sales growth rate for three categories of digital products (smartphones, tablets, and smart wearables) is projected to be 33% in 2025 due to the subsidy[32] Group 4: Automobiles - The automobile subsidy is estimated at 151.3 billion yuan, which could stimulate consumption by 287.4 billion yuan, contributing to a retail sales growth of 0.6 percentage points[36] - The total number of vehicles eligible for scrappage subsidies is expected to reach approximately 5.64 million, with a total sales value of around 7.128 billion yuan from scrapped vehicles[36][39]