CPI、PPI点评报告：政策效应释放，核心CPI稳中有升

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November, and remained flat month-on-month, reflecting insufficient consumer demand and low economic activity[6] - The main factor for the CPI decline was the drop in food price growth, which decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, a decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The "stabilize growth and promote consumption" policies are beginning to show effects, with a gradual recovery in consumer spending observed[9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year in December 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to November, indicating ongoing economic pressure and insufficient effective demand[6] - The PPI's month-on-month change was -0.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, highlighting the need for further economic stimulus[6] - The divergence in price trends between traditional industries and high-tech sectors was noted, with black metal prices down 9.5% and non-ferrous metal prices up 10.0% year-on-year[26] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI growth rate may rise slightly in 2025 due to the low base effect and the impact of consumption-promoting policies, but significant increases are unlikely due to persistent economic pressures[36] - The PPI is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by a potential global interest rate cut and recovery in major economies, but domestic economic challenges remain[36] - The report emphasizes the need to address the issue of insufficient demand, which continues to hinder price increases in the consumer market[36]