中国行业趋势报告：2025年度特别报告：预见2025

Core Viewpoints - Resilience has become a new paradigm for China's development, requiring flexible adjustments in business and operational models, as well as comprehensive optimization of management and decision-making systems [4] - China's economy is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from a traditional growth model reliant on labor and large-scale investment to an innovation and technology-driven model [5] - Despite current deflationary pressures and structural issues, China's export-to-domestic production ratio and import-to-trade ratio are declining, indicating a shift towards higher value-added industries and domestic substitution [7] - China's consumer market holds significant potential, with evolving consumer behavior post-pandemic favoring high-quality, safe, healthy, and green products [7] - To sustain economic growth, China must transition from quantity-driven to quality-driven production, enhancing value creation to boost disposable income and consumer confidence [8] - China's aging population poses long-term challenges, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above expected to reach 22% by 2040, necessitating improvements in social security systems [8][9] - China's export model is transforming across three dimensions: destination, product, and trade mode, with a strategic focus on Global South and European markets [11][12] - The "new three" products—new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products—are replacing the "old three" (clothing, furniture, and home appliances) as key drivers of China's export growth [13] - China's globalization strategy is shifting towards building production and logistics bases abroad, with overseas greenfield investments tripling in 2023 to $160 billion [14][15] Industry Trends Automotive - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards new energy vehicles, with Chinese manufacturers increasingly focusing on global markets and localizing production in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe [52][53] - Supply chain resilience is becoming a core strategic pillar for automotive manufacturers, with a focus on multi-regional manufacturing and digital-driven agile supply networks [53][54] Chemicals & Materials - The chemicals and materials sector is undergoing a green transformation, with companies adopting circular economy models and clean technologies to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency [56][57] - Leading companies are integrating sustainability into their strategic frameworks, leveraging digital and intelligent manufacturing to reshape value chains [56] Consumer Goods & Retail - Post-pandemic consumer behavior in China is evolving, with a growing demand for high-quality, safe, and green products, creating new opportunities for consumer goods and retail companies [7] - Companies are shifting from price competition to value creation, focusing on product quality and consumer trust to capture market share [7] Energy & Utilities - The energy sector is transitioning towards green manufacturing, with companies investing in zero-carbon factories and intelligent energy management systems to reduce unit energy consumption [56][57] - Renewable energy integration and smart microgrids are becoming key strategies for energy companies to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability [57] Industrial Products & Services - Industrial companies are leveraging digital transformation to improve production efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance product quality, with leading firms achieving 15-25% productivity gains [61][62] - The integration of AI and IoT technologies is reshaping traditional supply chain management, with 85% of global supply chain leaders adopting these technologies [52] Technology & Internet - AI adoption is accelerating across industries, with 70% of enterprises deploying AI technologies in 2024, particularly in marketing, customer operations, and IT departments [39][40] - Generative AI is expected to revolutionize content production, customer service, and operational efficiency, with significant cost reductions in AI model deployment [40][41] Pharma & Healthcare - The healthcare sector is facing increasing demand due to China's aging population, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above expected to rise to 22% by 2040 [8][9] - Companies are focusing on expanding healthcare coverage and improving service quality, with a particular emphasis on elderly care and pension systems [9] Globalization and Internationalization - China's globalization strategy is shifting towards building production and logistics bases abroad, with overseas greenfield investments tripling in 2023 to $160 billion [14][15] - Chinese companies are increasingly focusing on Global South markets, with investments in ports and infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative [12] - The EU remains a key trade partner for China, despite growing tensions, with opportunities for deeper economic cooperation as the US adopts more protectionist policies [12] - Chinese companies are transitioning from traditional export models to establishing local production and supply chains in key markets, reducing reliance on traditional trade routes [15] Strategic Recommendations for Enterprises - Chinese companies should adopt a clear globalization strategy, focusing on new target markets and overseas investments to mitigate risks and enhance resilience [19] - Building reliable partnerships in overseas markets can help Chinese companies leverage local resources and quickly penetrate new markets [19] - Operational optimization and cost efficiency are critical for Chinese companies to remain competitive, with a focus on improving product quality and innovation [19] - Multinational companies in China should balance risk reduction with market expansion, leveraging China's innovation ecosystem and digital transformation opportunities [17][20]