中国银河：每日晨报-20250114

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The scale of subsidies for the 2025 consumer goods replacement policy is estimated to be around 500 billion, which is expected to drive consumption by over 818.5 billion, contributing to a retail sales growth rate of more than 1.7% [3][11][4] - The 2025 policy expands the scope of subsidies to include home appliances, consumer electronics, and automobiles, with a total subsidy scale of approximately 4.411 trillion [11][4] - The fiscal multiplier effect of the subsidy policy in 2024 was around 1.9, indicating that every 1 yuan of fiscal spending generated approximately 1.9 yuan in consumption growth [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector - The subsidy scale for home appliances is projected to be 154.8 billion, which could stimulate consumption by 276.2 billion, potentially increasing retail sales growth by 0.56% [6][10] - The subsidy for consumer electronics is estimated at 135.8 billion, expected to drive consumption by 263.1 billion, contributing to a retail sales growth of 0.54% [9][10] - The automotive sector is anticipated to receive a subsidy of 151.3 billion, which could lead to an additional consumption of 287.4 billion, raising retail sales growth by 0.6% [10][11] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - The fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has significantly boosted investment in the pharmaceutical industry, attracting substantial capital into the biotech sector [29][30] - Since the introduction of the fifth set of standards, 20 biopharmaceutical companies have gone public, leading to a notable increase in the number of research pipelines and new drug approvals [30][31] - The pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation and institutional holdings, presenting long-term investment opportunities as policy reforms in commercial insurance payment are expected to bring marginal improvements [31][29] Group 4: Market Strategy and Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience gradual improvement following the implementation of domestic consumption-boosting policies, despite facing short-term pressure from rising U.S. dollar index and bond yields [25][27] - The technology sector remains attractive for investment, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and semiconductors, as domestic policies increasingly emphasize self-sufficiency [25][27] - High dividend strategies in the Hong Kong market are still appealing, especially for state-owned enterprises actively managing their market capitalization [27][25]