ANTA SPORTS(02020) 申万宏源·2025-01-14 03:15Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's sales performance exceeded expectations, with Anta brand achieving high single-digit growth in Q4 2024 and FILA brand showing significant improvement from the previous quarter [7] - The company's multi-brand strategy is robust, with Anta's main brand growing steadily and FILA focusing on high-end fashion, while new outdoor brands continue to show strong momentum [7] - The company's share buyback program is progressing rapidly, with 16.06 million shares repurchased between December 20, 2024, and January 9, 2025, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for FY2022 was RMB 536.5 billion, increasing to RMB 623.6 billion in FY2023, with projected revenues of RMB 686.0 billion, RMB 743.5 billion, and RMB 808.6 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 75.9 billion in FY2022, rising to RMB 102.4 billion in FY2023, with forecasts of RMB 134.1 billion, RMB 135.7 billion, and RMB 150.7 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Gross margin improved from 60.2% in FY2022 to 62.6% in FY2023, with further increases expected to 63.3%, 64.0%, and 64.6% in FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] Brand Performance - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business growing at low double-digit rates [7] - FILA brand saw high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business turning from negative growth in Q3 to mid-single-digit growth [7] - New outdoor brands, including Kolon Sport and DESCENTE, showed strong performance with Q4 2024 growth rates of 60-65% and 45-50% respectively [7] Channel Performance - Online sales outperformed offline, with Anta's e-commerce growing at high double-digit rates in Q4 2024 [7] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, the company's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 11.1 billion, securing the top position in the industry without excessive discounting [7] - Offline channels continued to innovate, with the introduction of high-value-for-money Super Anta stores capturing price-sensitive consumers effectively [7] Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta and FILA's inventory-to-sales ratio at around 5x [7] - Discount levels improved steadily, with Anta's online discounts improving by 1 percentage point year-on-year in Q4 2024, while offline discounts remained stable at around 7.2% [7] International Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its overseas expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while also planning to open a direct retail store in Los Angeles and launch cross-border e-commerce in 2025 [7]