12月贸易数据点评：贸易顺差创历史新高

Group 1: Trade Performance - China's December exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 7.3% and up from 6.7% in the previous month[4] - December imports rose by 1.0% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 1.5% decline, and improved from a 3.9% drop in November[4] - The trade surplus for December reached a record high of $104.84 billion, surpassing the expected $99.8 billion and the previous month's $97.44 billion[4] Group 2: Export Drivers - The rebound in exports was driven by resilient external demand and a "rush to export" effect, with December exports reaching $335.63 billion, marking the highest monthly value since January 2022[5] - Key export markets showed significant growth: exports to ASEAN rose by 18.9%, to the EU by 8.8%, and to the US by 15.6%[9] - Machinery and electrical products accounted for over 59% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1%, indicating a structural improvement in export composition[12] Group 3: Import Dynamics - December imports totaled $230.79 billion, the highest monthly figure since October 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1% for the entire year[17] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by a rise in quantities, particularly in machinery and electrical products, which corresponded with strong export growth[20] - Certain categories, such as dried fruits and nuts, saw significant year-on-year increases exceeding 38%, likely due to pre-holiday stockpiling[20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The "rush to export" effect is expected to continue in the short term, influenced by external trade policies and potential tariff changes from the US[23] - The overall trade environment for 2024 is anticipated to improve, but challenges may arise in 2025 due to potential tariff implementations and high base effects from previous years[23]