社会服务行业行业周报：茶饮IPO获进展，关注春节旺季布局机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the social services industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the progress of tea beverage IPOs, particularly focusing on the opportunities presented by the upcoming Spring Festival peak season [1]. - The social services sector experienced a decline of 3.4% in the week from January 1 to January 10, 2025, with specific segments such as hotels and restaurants seeing a drop of 7.1% [4][73]. Summary by Sections 1. Segment Tracking and Insights - Tourism: The issuance of cultural tourism consumption vouchers in regions like Guangdong and Hubei, combined with an extended Spring Festival holiday, is expected to boost tourism demand, potentially exceeding last year's low base due to adverse weather conditions [4][9]. - Chain Services: The IPO progress of leading tea brands like Mixue Ice City and the expansion of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy are noted. The global ready-to-drink beverage market is valued at $780 billion, indicating significant growth potential in Southeast Asia and beyond [4][10]. - Education & Human Resources: K12 education demand remains resilient, with recommendations for leading companies to focus on growth in Q2-Q3. The human resources sector is expected to benefit from increased labor demand as the economy recovers [4][11]. - Duty-Free: Data from the New Year period shows a decline in duty-free shopping, with a focus on monitoring future trends and the impact of new policies [4][11]. 2. Industry Data - Retail Sales: In November 2024, China's total retail sales reached 43,763 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3%. Service retail sales showed a cumulative increase of 7.5% for the year [13][15]. - Hotel Performance: As of January 5, 2025, hotel occupancy rates (OCC) improved to 54.8%, with average daily rates (ADR) at 191.5 yuan, indicating a positive trend in the hotel sector [27][36]. - Gambling: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for December was 18.2 billion patacas, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decline, attributed to festive events [57]. 3. Industry News - Duty-Free and Tourism Retail: Shenzhen is set to launch its first city duty-free store in 2025, while Hainan's duty-free shopping reached 30.94 billion yuan in 2024 [61][62]. - Hotel Expansion: Accor plans to expand its hotel portfolio by 3%-4% in 2025, with a focus on Asian markets [62]. - Restaurant Sector: The approval of IPOs for Mixue Ice City and other brands indicates a growing trend in the restaurant sector, with significant consumer interest [63]. 4. Market Trends - The social services sector's performance is lagging behind the broader market, with a notable decline in various segments, reflecting cautious market sentiment [73]. 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with recommendations for several firms across different segments, including education, duty-free, and hospitality [85].