新国标正式发布，两轮车需求弹性可期

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [10] Core Viewpoints - The two-wheeler industry is expected to see significant demand elasticity in 2025, with shipments likely to achieve favorable growth due to several factors: 1) The official release of the new national standard is anticipated to release pent-up demand as consumers can still purchase vehicles under the old standard until the end of November [5][12] 2) The continuation of the "trade-in for new" policy at the beginning of 2025, coupled with substantial subsidies per vehicle, is expected to boost industry demand [5] 3) Following inventory destocking in Q3 2024, channel inventories remain at historically low levels, which are expected to gradually recover to normal levels [5] - The implementation of the new national standard's production requirements starting in Q4 2025 will accelerate the exit of non-compliant companies from the market [5] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles (GB 17761—2024) was officially released on January 13, 2025, with an implementation date set for September 1, 2025, allowing an 8-month production transition period [12] - Changes from the draft to the official standard include the requirement for the BeiDou system installation only for electric bicycles used in commercial activities, allowing consumers to choose whether to include it for other types [12] - The production transition period has been extended from 6 months to 8 months, alleviating production pressure during peak sales seasons [12] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the two-wheeler sector, highlighting that the combination of the new national standard, the continuation of trade-in policies, and low inventory levels will lead to robust operational growth for leading companies in the sector [5][12]