中国银河：每日晨报-20250115

Macro Overview - The central bank has released a strong signal to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, indicating that the RMB will remain stable at a reasonable and balanced level in 2025. Factors influencing the RMB/USD exchange rate include nominal economic growth rates in China and the US, which are expected to be supportive, while monetary policies and foreign exchange supply-demand relationships are neutral [3][6][5]. Company Insights Minshida (833394.BJ) - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a projected growth of 20.05% to 44.55%, and a non-GAAP net profit growth of 41.43% to 57.69%. The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is between 98 million to 118 million CNY [15][16]. - The demand for aramid paper is increasing in aerospace, rail transit, and new energy vehicles, contributing to the company's revenue growth. The company is also enhancing its market presence through global exhibitions and partnerships [16][18]. - The new product, flash-spun non-woven fabric, is in the trial phase and is expected to become a significant growth driver due to its wide application potential in various industries [17][18]. Construction Materials - The cement market is experiencing a downturn due to seasonal demand weakness, with prices expected to decline further. However, a recovery in demand is anticipated in the medium to long term due to policy support for infrastructure investment [21][24]. - The consumer building materials sector is expected to benefit from the release of pent-up demand in the real estate market, with leading companies likely to gain market share through improved sales strategies and product offerings [22][24]. Social Services - The tourism sector is poised for a rebound, with the issuance of cultural tourism consumption vouchers and an extended holiday period expected to boost demand during the Spring Festival. The data from the previous year was impacted by extreme weather, suggesting a low base for comparison [27][28]. - The tea beverage sector is seeing progress in IPOs, with major brands preparing to enter the Hong Kong market, which could enhance growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [29]. Transportation - The aviation sector is expected to see increased demand in 2025 as international flights resume and domestic demand is stimulated by policy measures. This could lead to improved pricing dynamics and profitability for airlines [33][39]. - The shipping industry is closely monitoring the impact of increased sanctions on Russian energy, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics in oil transportation [33]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the aramid paper sector that benefit from high technical barriers and strong profitability, as well as those involved in the production of flash-spun non-woven fabrics [18]. - In the construction materials sector, recommend companies that are well-positioned to benefit from policy-driven demand recovery and have strong brand and product quality advantages [24]. - In the tourism sector, consider investing in companies like Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming holiday season [28].