QI AUTOMOTIVE CO.(837242) 申万宏源·2025-01-15 04:51Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned in the automotive aftermarket, focusing on non-wear parts, and is expected to benefit from the growth in automotive electronics as a new growth driver [6][14]. - The automotive aftermarket is characterized by its anti-cyclical nature, with key indicators such as vehicle ownership, average vehicle age, and mileage driving demand stability [6][34]. - The North American market shows a stable growth trajectory, while the domestic market is witnessing a significant trend towards electrification, indicating a turning point for non-wear parts demand [6][34]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 737 million, 902 million, and 1,091 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 22.4%, and 20.9% [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 101 million, 119 million, and 137 million for the same years, with growth rates of 45.6%, 17.4%, and 14.7% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 17.1%, 17.2%, and 17.0% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E [5][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong presence in the automotive aftermarket for over 21 years, providing comprehensive solutions for non-wear parts across various vehicle models [6][14]. - The company has diversified its customer base, reducing reliance on top clients from 70.72% in 2019 to 51.23% in 2024H1, while increasing its cross-border e-commerce client base [6][7]. - The company is actively investing in automotive electronics, launching 2,000 to 3,000 new product models annually, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [6][22]. Industry Insights - The automotive aftermarket is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to reach 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 8.97% from 2023 to 2027 [6][34]. - The complexity of automotive parts is increasing, leading to a shift towards a product and service competition model, which favors platform-based suppliers [6][34]. - The demand for non-wear parts in the electric vehicle segment is anticipated to increase, driven by higher maintenance costs compared to traditional fuel vehicles [6][50].