Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 大唐新能源 with a target price of HKD 2.28, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 1.86 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's power generation volume is expected to grow by 2.06% year-on-year in 2024, with a notable increase in solar power generation by 49.03% compared to 2023, while wind power generation is projected to decline by 1.83% [2][7]. - Recent government policies addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises trading below net asset value are expected to positively impact the valuation recovery of Hong Kong's renewable energy operators [3][8]. - The report highlights the gradual release of risks associated with electricity price declines, suggesting that the long-term investment value of the renewable energy sector is becoming more apparent [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to increase from RMB 12,802 million in 2023 to RMB 13,623 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.3% [6][14]. - Core net profit is expected to recover from RMB 2,240 million in 2023 to RMB 2,715 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [6][14]. - The report anticipates an EBITDA margin of approximately 82% in 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency [14][16]. Market Position - The total market capitalization of 大唐新能源 is approximately HKD 13.53 billion, with major shareholders including 中国大唐集团公司 (57.37%) and 中国水利电力 (8.24%) [2][6]. - The stock is currently trading at a PE ratio of 6.0 for 2023, which is below the industry average, suggesting potential undervaluation [12][14]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's dividend policy, with expectations for an increase in the dividend payout ratio from 23% in 2023 to 19% in 2025 [6][14]. - The anticipated decline in long-term electricity prices in provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu is expected to exert pressure on the renewable energy sector, but the report suggests that this risk is gradually being mitigated [4][9].
大唐新能源：24年发电量小幅增长，期待派息率有所提升