2024年广州房地产市场回顾及2025年展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Guangzhou real estate market, with a focus on the upcoming supply peak and declining rental prices across various property types [3][4][10]. Core Insights - The Guangzhou office, retail, and logistics markets experienced a decrease in supply in 2024 compared to 2023, leading to a general decline in rental prices as landlords adopted a "price for volume" leasing strategy to cope with the anticipated supply peak over the next three years [3][4][10]. - The office market showed regional differentiation, with favorable absorption rates in areas like Pazhou and Financial City, while retail properties saw active brand iterations, including the introduction of luxury brands in Zhujiang New Town [3][4][10]. - The overall investment market in Guangzhou saw a decline in transaction volume, with a total transaction amount of 8.46 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 54.4% year-on-year [19][20]. Office Market Summary - In 2024, Guangzhou added five new office projects totaling 340,000 square meters, a 52% decrease year-on-year, with an overall vacancy rate rising to 18.7% by year-end [4][10]. - The net absorption for the year was recorded at 204,000 square meters, with significant contributions from Pazhou and Financial City [4][10]. - The TMT, financial services, consumer goods manufacturing, and professional services sectors accounted for 67% of office transactions, although the share of TMT and financial services declined [4][5][6]. Retail Market Summary - The retail market saw only two new projects entering the market, totaling approximately 197,000 square meters, a significant drop from previous years [11][12]. - The retail rental market faced pressure, with a year-end rental price of 23.3 RMB per square meter per day, down 3.5% year-on-year [11][12]. - The food and beverage sector was the most active, with 46% of transactions, while the fashion and electronics sectors also showed notable activity [12][13]. Logistics Market Summary - The logistics market in Guangzhou recorded a significant increase in supply, with 237,000 square meters added in 2024, despite a rise in vacancy rates to 7.0% [15][16]. - Cross-border e-commerce demand has decreased from its peak, impacting overall logistics transactions [15][16]. - The report anticipates a total of 3.53 million square meters of new logistics supply over the next three years, with a focus on enhancing the region's competitiveness through infrastructure improvements [18]. Investment Market Summary - The investment market in Guangzhou saw a notable decrease in large property transactions, with only 21 transactions totaling 8.46 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a significant drop in average transaction value [19][20]. - The retail sector accounted for the highest share of transaction value at 29%, followed by office properties at 21% [21][24]. - Despite the decline in office transactions, self-use buyers remain interested in prime areas like Pazhou and Financial City, indicating potential for future investment opportunities [24].