高盛：预测中国股市2025年底涨20%

Investment Rating - Overweight on both China A-shares and Offshore China due to favorable risk/reward [4][5] Core Thesis - GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, driven by property deleveraging and slower exports due to rising trade frictions with developed markets [4] - Policy support is expected to mitigate housing and external challenges, facilitating a shift from trade and investment to consumption-driven growth [4] Market Expectations - MSCI China and CSI300 are forecasted to rise ~20% by end-2025, driven by 7%/10% profit growth and fair PE multiples of 11x/14x respectively [4] - The base case assumes a 20% increase in US tariff rates on Chinese exports, with significant variability in fair value estimates depending on tariff outcomes [4][9] Sector Allocation - Overweight on Online Retail, Media, and Healthcare, with an upgrade of Consumer Services to Overweight [4] - A broad consumption tilt is recommended, with a focus on government consumption proxies, EM exporters, and New Tech/Infra investments [4][16] Themes - Government consumption proxies are favored due to the expected recovery in local government spending, particularly in sectors like autos, retailing, and healthcare equipment [16][17] - EM exporters and RMB depreciation beneficiaries are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, with companies diversifying revenue and production geographically [25][26] - New Tech/Infra investments are emphasized, particularly in sectors like Cap Goods, Materials, and Tech Hardware, supported by national strategic goals [36][37] Styles - Shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks) are expected to prevail, with Chinese corporates returning RMB3tn to shareholders in 2024, and an expected RMB3.5tn in 2025 [47][48] - Valued Growth is preferred, with a focus on small/mid-cap opportunities that offer attractive growth/valuation profiles [69][74] Factors - Value has outperformed Growth in recent years, but the report suggests a balanced approach, focusing on alpha opportunities in both categories [74] - Small caps may stabilize relative to large caps, with thematic investments in "Little Giants" potentially generating excess returns [74][75] Market Rotation - Balanced returns are expected between A-shares and H-shares in the near term, with sentiment and liquidity potentially improving in late 1Q25 [4][14] Key Exhibits - MSCI China is forecasted to reach 75 by end-2025, implying a 21% price return from current levels [6] - CSI300 is expected to reach 4600 by end-2025, also implying a 21% upside [7][8]