洽洽食品-2025瑞银大中华研讨会：春节备货略不及预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the company, with a 12-month target price revised down from RMB 33.00 to RMB 29.00 [4][5] Core Views - The company's Spring Festival sales performance in December showed double-digit year-on-year growth but fell short of expectations due to weaker-than-expected terminal demand and cautious distributor attitudes [1][2] - Gross margin pressure is expected to persist due to elevated raw material costs for sunflower seeds, despite a recent pullback from peak levels [1][3] - The company targets 10% revenue growth in 2025, with potential growth drivers including specific product lines (e.g., hand-picked sunflower seeds, peanuts, nut milk) and channels (e.g., discount stores, Sam's Club) [1] - The company does not rule out further increasing its dividend payout ratio, with guidance in the range of 60-80% [1] Financial Performance and Valuation - The DCF-based target price was revised down to RMB 29.00 (WACC: 7.7%), reflecting more conservative expectations for revenue growth and gross margins [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025/26/27 were revised down by 16%, 16%, and 8%, respectively [4][6] - The company's market cap stands at RMB 14.1 billion (USD 1.93 billion), with a P/B ratio of 2.4x for 12/24E [5] - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 7.29 billion in 2024E to RMB 9.07 billion in 2028E, with EBIT margins expected to recover to 14.4% by 2027E [8] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is refocusing on its core sunflower seed and nut businesses after unsuccessful diversification attempts, with seeds accounting for 63% of 2023 revenue and nuts for 26% [11] - Channel replenishment has started in January, potentially leading to better-than-expected year-on-year performance for the Spring Festival period [2] - The company's product mix and channel expansion are expected to drive growth, particularly in discount stores and membership-based retail channels [1] Market and Industry Context - The snack food industry in China faces intensifying competition, which could impact the company's growth trajectory [12] - Raw material price volatility, particularly for sunflower seeds and certain nuts, remains a key risk factor for the company's profitability [3][12]