TINCI(002709) -·2025-01-15 07:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb30.50 per share, based on a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 8.9% [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a slight increase in electrolyte prices in 2025, supported by rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and an expected improvement in the industry landscape with limited new capacity from leading firms [2][3]. - The company is focusing on overseas capacity expansion, with plans to establish joint ventures in the U.S. and Morocco, aiming for production by 2027 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Outlook - The company expects a modest rise in electrolyte prices in 2025, driven by an increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from Rmb56,000 per ton to Rmb63,000 per ton, which will provide cost support [2]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity utilization for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to rise to approximately 90,000 tons, an increase of about 20,000 tons year-on-year [2]. Overseas Capacity Expansion - The company plans to build 200,000 tons of electrolyte capacity and 100,000 tons of liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate in the U.S. in partnership with Honeywell, with a 51% stake [3]. - In Morocco, the company aims to establish 150,000 tons of electrolyte capacity and 100,000 tons of liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate, with an estimated investment of 300 million for both projects, scheduled to commence production in 2027 [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from Rmb12.35 billion in 2024E to Rmb16.89 billion in 2025E, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb519 million to Rmb1.53 billion in the same period [7]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to grow from Rmb0.27 in 2024E to Rmb0.80 in 2025E, and further to Rmb1.17 in 2026E [7]. Market Position - The company is currently the largest producer of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate globally, leveraging a highly integrated supply chain and economies of scale to maintain cost competitiveness [10].