中集车辆-2025瑞银大中华研讨会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from Rmb12.00 to Rmb10.80, based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about growth prospects for 2025, driven by industry clearing in 2024 and policies promoting vehicle replacement, which may lead to a rebound in the trailer industry [1][2]. - The North American market is expected to stabilize after a peak in 2023, with new orders anticipated to turn positive in early 2025 [3]. - The Starlink program is expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve profit margins, contributing to a market share increase from 12% in 2023 to a target of 20% in 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The trailer industry is projected to recover in 2025, with sales potentially rising to 400,000-500,000 units, aided by vehicle replacement policies [2]. - The North American market is currently in a low demand phase following a surge in 2023, but is expected to see a recovery in 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The company experienced slow revenue and profit growth in 2024 due to a domestic economic slowdown and extended trailer replacement cycles, with sales falling below historical averages [1][2]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of Rmb23.1 billion and a net profit of Rmb1.23 billion, with earnings per share projected at Rmb0.66 [7]. Market Position - The company has increased its market share in China from 12% in 2023 to 16% in the first nine months of 2024, with a goal of reaching 20% [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain capabilities in North America to improve competitiveness [3].