12月及2024全年汽车行业销量点评：全年销量同比+4.5%，政策激发2025增长潜力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [3] Core Insights - The automotive industry is projected to see a year-on-year sales increase of 4.5% in 2024, driven by policy incentives and a strong push for vehicle replacement programs [1][2] - In December 2024, automotive sales reached 3.489 million units, marking a 10.5% increase year-on-year, while total sales for the year are expected to reach 31.436 million units [1] - The report highlights that the "old-for-new" policy is expected to stimulate nearly 30% of domestic passenger car sales in 2024, with an anticipated doubling of funding support from 150 billion to 300 billion [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to accelerate, with a projected 38.1% increase in NEV sales in 2025, reaching 15.255 million units [7] - The report anticipates a 13.2% growth in automotive exports in 2025, reaching 6.632 million units, supported by the establishment of overseas production capacities by domestic brands [8] Summary by Sections Sales and Production - December 2024 saw passenger car sales of 3.12 million units, a 11.7% increase year-on-year, while total vehicle production for the year is expected to be 31.282 million units [1] - The report indicates that 2024 will see a total of 12.96 million NEVs sold, representing a 35.5% increase year-on-year [1] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy is projected to drive 400,000 to 500,000 passenger car sales in 2025, contributing to a 2.8% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger car sales [1] - The policy's impact is expected to cover an additional 10 million vehicles, enhancing the market's growth potential [1] Export Growth - The report notes that traditional fuel vehicle exports increased by 23.5% year-on-year, while NEV exports grew by 6.7%, with plug-in hybrid vehicles becoming a new growth driver [8] - The anticipated growth in exports is attributed to the successful establishment of overseas production by companies like BYD and Aion [8] Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies, including BYD and Li Auto in the complete vehicle segment, and various component manufacturers such as Huayu Automotive and Bertel [9]