SIASUN(300024) -·2025-01-15 07:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanhua and Best Precision, while upgrading the rating for Greentec Harmonics and Mingzhi to "Neutral" [2][16] Core Insights - The report extends the valuation benchmark year to 2030 due to increased long-term visibility in the humanoid robotics industry, resulting in target price increases of 34% to 82% for four humanoid robotics component stocks [1][17] - The report highlights several upcoming catalysts, including Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings release and the potential launch of Optimus Gen3, as well as NVIDIA's GTC conference and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in China [2][3] Summary by Sections Investment Ratings - Sanhua and Best Precision are rated as "Buy" due to attractive risk-reward profiles and expected benefits from domestic automotive and home appliance sales policies [2] - Greentec Harmonics and Mingzhi's rating is upgraded from "Sell" to "Neutral" reflecting balanced return prospects [2][16] Market Outlook - The humanoid robotics industry is expected to see significant growth, with Tesla projecting shipments of thousands of Optimus robots in 2025, increasing to 50,000-100,000 units by 2027 [3] - The report indicates that the humanoid robotics business could significantly enhance the equity value of the covered stocks, with potential increases of 1.3 to 2.6 times the current market value based on different shipment scenarios [3][11] Financial Projections - By 2027, humanoid robotics revenue for Sanhua, Best Precision, Greentec Harmonics, and Mingzhi is projected to reach RMB 29.187 billion, RMB 1.769 billion, RMB 3.010 billion, and RMB 3.002 billion respectively, constituting 39%, 46%, 83%, and 45% of their total revenues [6][11] - The report maintains revenue and net profit CAGR forecasts for Greentec Harmonics at 31% and 44% respectively from 2024 to 2030, reflecting optimism about new customer penetration and operational leverage improvements [16] Valuation Adjustments - The target price for Sanhua is set at RMB 35.2, Best Precision at RMB 29.7, LeaderDrive at RMB 111.3, and Moons' Electric at RMB 49.4, with the valuations based on a 45x target P/E ratio for 2030 [17][13] - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robotics sector is expected to become a long-term structural trend with clear high growth potential, justifying the extended valuation timeline [1][17]