UBS APAC Tech Strategy – January 2025 “Will AI plays continue to work__

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the APAC tech sector, particularly for AI-related plays, with a focus on semiconductors and memory [8][13] Core Views - AI-related investments are expected to continue performing well in 2025, driven by new AI accelerators and Gen AI applications [8] - Smartphone demand may see a resurgence as edge AI becomes more relevant, with a forecast of 2% YoY growth in 2025 [8] - Memory sector recovery is anticipated, with DRAM expected to rebound starting in 4Q25 due to capacity allocation to HBM [8] - CoWoS capacity is projected to grow significantly, from 35-40k wpm at the end of 2024 to 120-130k wpm by the end of 2026 [8] Market and Sector Preferences - Overweight on Korea and Taiwan, particularly in semiconductors, memory, and leading-edge foundries [13] - Neutral on PC OEMs/ODMs and smartphones, while underweight on China semis and displays [13] - Most preferred stocks include ASE, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Quanta, and TSMC, with significant upside potential [11] Key Stock Coverage - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rated as Buy, with price targets indicating 17.6% and 19.5% upside, respectively [9] - TSMC is also rated as Buy, with an 18.2% upside potential [9] - LG Display is rated as Sell, with limited upside potential [9] Semiconductor Cycle Indicators - Semiconductor revenue growth is expected to peak in 1Q25, with memory operating profits peaking in 3Q26 [34] - Foundry capacity utilization rates are projected to recover, reaching a peak in 4Q25 [34] Tech End-Market Sensitivity to GDP - Mobile phone unit growth shows a 48% correlation with global GDP growth, while PC and server unit growth show weaker correlations [68] - Upside scenarios for non-AI end-markets include stronger global GDP growth and AI-driven replacement cycles for PCs and smartphones [76] PC Demand Recovery - PC demand is expected to recover with the introduction of Edge AI and Windows 12, with total PC units forecasted to grow by 5.7% YoY in 2025 [78] - Notebook units are projected to grow by 6.1% YoY, while desktop units are expected to grow by 4.7% YoY [78]