半导体设备板块观点：2025长鑫产业链占优，重点关注HBM产业链设备公司

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on the equipment stocks in the DRAM/HBM industry chain, such as Jingzhida, and those benefiting from the continued expansion of advanced storage/advanced logic in mainland China in 2025E, including North Huanchuang and Sinomicro [1][5]. Core Insights - The most growth-certain opportunities in 2025E will come from the Changxin industry chain and HBM/advanced packaging industry chain, followed by the advanced storage and advanced logic industry chains [1][5]. - The average capacity utilization rate of major mainland Chinese fabs is expected to remain high, while the average utilization rate of packaging plants is projected to be around 75%-80% [2][5]. - There is a structural differentiation in downstream demand, with high-performance computing, AI, robotics, and smart driving chips expected to maintain high growth, while demand in consumer, industrial, and automotive sectors is anticipated to be weaker [2][5]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment Sector - The report emphasizes that the 2025E demand outlook and capital expenditure for the semiconductor equipment sector will be driven by the Changxin industry chain and HBM/advanced packaging [1][5]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the equipment stocks related to the DRAM/HBM industry chain, particularly Jingzhida, due to its close collaboration with domestic DRAM fabs and ongoing development of HBM testing machines [3][5]. Capital Expenditure Outlook - Capital expenditure for major mainland Chinese fabs is expected to increase compared to 2024, with storage (DRAM, NAND) capital expenditure projected to grow by 30%-40% and advanced logic by over 20% [2][5]. - The capital expenditure for traditional packaging is expected to decline by 30%-40%, while advanced packaging (including HBM) is projected to grow by over 50% [2][5]. Market Sentiment - There are concerns in the market regarding the expansion plans of advanced logic and advanced NAND fabs for 2025E, with investors worried about a potential slowdown similar to 2024 [4][5]. - Despite these concerns, the report expresses confidence in the expansion scale of advanced logic and advanced NAND in 2025E, suggesting that investors should consider holding off on investment decisions until the first half of 2025 when equipment orders are expected to be clearer [4][5].