2024年第三季度东南亚经贸简报

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Southeast Asia's economic growth, driven by strong external demand and regional consumption and investment growth [3][7]. Core Insights - Southeast Asia's economy is expected to continue its robust growth in 2024, with GDP growth rates projected to exceed those of 2023 across the six countries analyzed [3][10]. - The region is benefiting from the reshaping of U.S.-China trade relations, with significant increases in exports to the U.S. [5][46]. - The implementation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 and the ongoing benefits from RCEP are anticipated to deepen economic cooperation between China and ASEAN, particularly in renewable energy, digital economy, and AI [3][7]. Macroeconomic Overview - In Q3 2024, Southeast Asia demonstrated strong economic growth, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore, with Vietnam's GDP growth reaching 7.4% [14][15]. - The overall CPI in the region has decreased, influenced by falling global food and energy prices [33][34]. - The IMF forecasts that GDP growth for the six Southeast Asian countries will be higher in 2024 compared to 2023, with steady growth expected into 2025 [10][11]. Trade Performance - Southeast Asia's trade has seen significant growth, with exports increasing by 9.5% and imports by 13.0% in Q3 2024 [43][46]. - Exports to the U.S. have surged, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2% in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for electronics and other products [46][48]. Manufacturing Sector - Vietnam and Singapore's manufacturing sectors have shown remarkable growth, with industrial production indices increasing by 10.3% and 11.1% respectively in Q3 2024 [17][14]. - The manufacturing growth in Malaysia is stable at approximately 3.9%, while the Philippines has faced a decline in industrial production [17][15]. Consumer Behavior - Thailand's retail sales index grew by 24.7% in Q3 2024, reflecting a strong recovery in consumer spending, particularly in tourism [19][20]. - In contrast, Singapore's retail sales index declined by 3.2%, indicating weak consumer demand [20][19]. Price Trends - The CPI across Southeast Asia has generally shown a downward trend, with specific countries like the Philippines and Indonesia experiencing significant drops in inflation rates [33][34]. - The PPI has also decreased in most countries, except for Vietnam, which saw a slight increase [35][36]. Interest and Exchange Rates - Interest rates have remained stable across most countries, with Singapore's three-month interbank rate decreasing from 3.9% to 3.4% [39][40]. - The currencies of Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore have appreciated against the U.S. dollar, while the Philippine peso has depreciated [40][41].