2025年信用展望：煤炭开采和洗选

Core Insights - Fitch Bohua projects that China's raw coal production growth will further slow to 1.0%-1.5% in 2025, corresponding to a production volume of 4.8 billion to 4.82 billion tons, due to demand slowdown, high inventory levels, and declining coal prices [1][7][12] - The overall credit outlook for China's coal mining and washing industry in 2025 is rated as "stable," although there are concerns regarding the debt servicing indicators being in a relatively weak position [1][49] Production and Demand - In 2024, China's raw coal production reached 4.32 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with significant contributions from major production regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang [2][12] - The production capacity utilization rate for the coal mining and washing industry hovered between 71%-73% in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in supply efficiency [7][9] - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain resilient, with growth projected to maintain low single digits, while coking coal consumption may decline further compared to 2024 [1][19][25] Price Trends - Fitch Bohua anticipates that the average port price for Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) will range between 760-810 RMB/ton in 2025, indicating a decline of 5.3%-11.1% from 2024 [1][31][44] - The price of coking coal is also expected to decrease, potentially at a rate higher than that of thermal coal, due to weak downstream steel demand [1][45][48] Import Dynamics - The growth rate of coal imports in China is expected to significantly decline in 2025, following a record high contribution to total coal supply in 2024, where imports accounted for 10.2% of total supply [12][14] - High inventory levels at ports and the robust domestic production are likely to constrain the growth of coal imports, with port inventories reaching 70.1 million tons by the end of 2024, the highest level since 2019 [14][17] Industry Financials - The coal mining and washing industry reported a revenue of 287.4 billion RMB in the first eleven months of 2024, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, with total profits down by 20.8% [49][51] - Despite the anticipated decline in coal prices, the profit margins for coal companies are expected to remain above critical thresholds, providing a safety cushion against potential downturns [49][50]