化妆品医美行业2024年业绩前瞻：24年需求估值双企稳，25年预计势能向上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for cosmetics and medical beauty products is expected to remain stable in 2024, with a notable divergence in performance among key domestic brands, leading to both high growth and performance declines [3][4]. - The overall performance of the SW Beauty Index has shown a downward trend but began to rebound by the end of September due to policy support, making it one of the most watched sectors in consumer markets [3]. - Companies with strong performance in a stable environment are expected to benefit significantly in terms of stock price [3]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector - Brand Matrix and Growth: - Proya is projected to achieve a revenue and net profit growth of 15% and 12% respectively in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 25% and 26% [3][4]. - Shiseido is expected to see a 60% revenue growth and a 75% increase in net profit for 2024 [3][4]. - Marubi is forecasted to have a 35% revenue growth and a 32% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 30% and 36% [3][4]. - Niche Market Focus: - Giant Bio is expected to grow its revenue and net profit by 45% and 35% respectively in 2024 [3][4]. - Mao Geping is projected to see a 39% revenue growth and a 41% net profit increase [3][4]. - High Cost-Performance Consumption: - Runben is expected to achieve a 30% revenue growth and a 10% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 27% and 37% [3][4]. - Furuida is projected to have flat revenue growth but a 15% increase in net profit for Q4 2024, with an overall annual decline of 13% and 19% [3][4]. Medical Beauty Sector - Performance Forecast: - Aimeike is expected to see a 5% revenue growth and a 5% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 8% and 10% [3][4]. - Longzi is projected to achieve a 10% revenue growth and a 10% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 12% and 8% [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended Companies: - Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi are highlighted for their comprehensive brand matrix and strong growth potential [3][4]. - Companies like Giant Bio and Mao Geping are noted for their niche market strengths [3][4]. - Runben and Furuida are recommended for their high cost-performance products [3][4]. - Companies to Watch: - Attention is drawn to Shanghai Jahwa, Betaini, Huaxi Biological, and Shuyang for potential investment opportunities [3][4].