2024造船年度总结：船价上涨中继，单年度新签订单创新高，行业供需差仍显著

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipbuilding industry, highlighting a continuation of the upward trend in new ship prices and record-high new orders signed in 2024 [4][5]. Core Insights - New ship prices are on an upward trajectory, with the newbuilding price index reaching 189 points by the end of 2024, a 6.06% increase from the beginning of the year. The second-hand ship price index rose to 176 points, marking an 18.04% increase [5]. - The global shipbuilding orderbook stands at 365 million DWT, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year. The new orders signed in 2024 totaled 16.8 million DWT, a 31% increase compared to the previous year, with a total value of $20.38 billion, up 55% year-on-year [5]. - China's share of new orders in 2024 reached 77% by weight and 66% by value, marking a historical high [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Upward Trend - The long-term upward trend in the shipping industry remains intact, with expectations for recovery in the latter half of the interest rate cycle [7]. - The global ship fleet's average age is increasing, indicating a need for replacement as older vessels reach the end of their operational lifespan [32]. 2. Market Divergence and Core Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the supply-demand dynamics in the shipping industry, with the average age of the global fleet continuing to rise [32]. - The replacement coverage ratio for older ships is currently below 50%, suggesting substantial room for growth in new orders [39]. 3. 2024 Shipbuilding Industry Update - The report highlights that the order coverage years remain high, indicating a significant supply-demand gap that supports upward pressure on ship prices [18][20]. - The shipbuilding industry is expected to see an increase in demolition rates for older vessels, driven by stricter environmental regulations [41]. 4. Chinese Shipyards: State-Owned vs. Private - The report discusses the performance of state-owned shipyards compared to private ones, noting that state-owned enterprises have a larger share of the new orders [30]. 5. Environmental Regulations and Decarbonization - The shipping industry is facing increasing pressure from environmental regulations, which are expected to accelerate the replacement of older ships with more environmentally friendly alternatives [21][27].