中国银河：每日晨报-20250116

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In December, exports in USD terms increased by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports rose by 1%, leading to a trade surplus of $104.84 billion [3][4] - The expected export growth rate for 2025 is 2.1%, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a potential increase to 3.6% and pessimistic scenarios indicating a decline to -5.7% due to trade tensions and tariff increases [7][6] - Factors supporting export growth in 2025 include a gradual global recovery, enhanced competitiveness of Chinese products, and the continuous expansion of new trade partnerships [7][6] Group 2: Sector Performance - The small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) sector showed a mixed performance in December, with recommendations to focus on sectors like light manufacturing, electric equipment, and new energy for potential excess returns [16][13] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a price increase driven by inflation expectations, with significant price rises in aluminum and copper, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to recover [22][24] - The agricultural sector, particularly pig farming, is projected to see a slight increase in output in 2025, supported by lower feed prices and improved farming efficiency [18][17] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US saw a significant increase of 15.6%, while exports to ASEAN and the EU also improved, indicating a robust demand from these regions [5][4] - The export growth of machinery and labor-intensive products remained strong, with notable increases in automotive parts and household appliances [6][4] - The overall trade dynamics reflect a strategic response to potential tariff risks and labor negotiations affecting shipping routes, which have influenced export patterns [4][3]