Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) with a target price of HKD 17.36, representing a potential upside of 30.3% from the current price of HKD 13.32 [1][6] Core Views - Great Wall Motor's 2024 full-year and Q4 performance was largely in line with expectations, driven by strong sales of the Tank brand and robust export performance [2] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 12.4-13.0 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 76.60%-85.14%, with non-GAAP net profit rising 94.47%-106.88% [6] - The Tank brand saw a 42.12% year-on-year increase in sales, reaching 231,000 units, contributing significantly to the company's profitability [6] - Great Wall Motor's high-end and intelligent vehicle strategy is progressing smoothly, with the company dominating the Chinese off-road vehicle market and successfully expanding into the high-end segment [6] - The company's global expansion, including production bases and R&D centers in Russia, Thailand, India, and Brazil, supports its growth prospects [6] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 137.34 billion in 2022 to RMB 261.44 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.0% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 8.27 billion in 2022 to RMB 18.04 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.9% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.96 in 2022 to RMB 2.11 in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.9% [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 19.4% in 2022 to 20.5% in 2026, driven by higher sales of premium models and improved product mix [14] Market and Industry Analysis - Great Wall Motor sold 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, including 321,800 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.82% [6] - Overseas sales reached 453,100 units, up 43.39% year-on-year, accounting for a significant portion of total sales [6] - Sales of vehicles priced above RMB 200,000 reached 309,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.13%, representing 25.1% of total sales [6] - The company plans to launch several new models and technology platforms in 2025, including the Tank 500 Hi4-Z, which was officially launched on January 1, 2025, and the Tank 400/700 Hi4-Z, which will feature enhanced power performance and pure electric range [6] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 17.36 is based on the company's strong performance in high-end and intelligent vehicle segments, as well as its global expansion strategy [6] - The potential upside of 30.3% reflects the market's confidence in the company's growth prospects and its ability to maintain profitability through premium product offerings and export growth [1][6]
长城汽车：2024全年和4季度业绩大致符合预期，坦克品牌销量和出口表现亮丽