美国12月核心CPI微降，或不影响本月美联储暂停降息

Inflation Data - The core CPI in the US for December decreased slightly by 0.08 percentage points to 0.23%, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - The overall CPI increased by 0.08 percentage points to 0.39%, in line with market expectations, primarily due to a significant rebound in energy prices[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9%, while the core CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%[1] Employment Data - The non-farm payrolls for December increased by 256,000, exceeding market expectations of 165,000 and the previous value of 212,000[3] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.231% in November to 4.086% in December[3] Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in January, with a significant reduction in the forecasted number of cuts for 2024[5] - Concerns regarding potential inflation from Trump's tariff policies are noted, but the impact on inflation in 2025 is expected to be limited[5] - The report suggests that the number of rate cuts in 2024 may be higher than the Fed's current prediction, estimating 3-4 cuts of 25 basis points each[5]