轻工行业行业月报：持续关注新一轮国补对需求的催化作用

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home furnishing sector, highlighting the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy on downstream demand in 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost demand in the home furnishing sector, with a projected sales revenue increase of 16.8% year-on-year from January to November 2024, compared to an overall retail growth of 4.5% [1][54]. - The government has allocated 81 billion yuan for the 2025 "old-for-new" policy, with expectations for increased subsidy amounts and broader eligibility for participating merchants [2][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2025 policy in continuing to support demand recovery in the home furnishing sector, particularly in the first quarter of 2025 [1][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Key Data Overview - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a recovery in retail sentiment, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [7]. - In November 2024, the retail sales of furniture from large enterprises reached 19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [19]. 2. Industry News and Dynamics - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy is confirmed to continue, with expectations for increased subsidy amounts and expanded categories [2][54]. - The packaging industry is seeing ongoing resource integration, with significant developments in the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Aori Jin [55]. 3. Performance in Capital Markets - As of January 13, 2025, the light industry manufacturing sector has shown a decline of 0.37%, ranking 19th among 31 sub-industries [64]. - The report notes that the valuation of the packaging and home furnishing sectors has rebounded, indicating potential for further increases [69]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the home furnishing sector that are likely to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, including Oppein Home (603833.SH), Sophia (002572.SZ), and others [73]. - In the packaging sector, companies like Yutong Technology (002831.SZ) and Aori Jin (002701.SZ) are recommended due to accelerated resource integration [73].