12月金融数据点评：关注2025年初央行是否“择机降准降息”

Economic Overview - In December 2024, new social financing (社融) reached 2.85 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.11 trillion yuan, and increased by 918.1 billion yuan compared to the same month in 2023[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 840.2 billion yuan in December 2024, a decrease of 269 billion yuan year-on-year, but an increase of 318.6 billion yuan from November 2024[3][4] Financing Structure - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds and corporate bonds, while RMB loans saw a significant year-on-year decline[4] - The share of government bonds in the financing structure rose by 0.30 percentage points compared to November 2024, while RMB loans decreased by 0.21 percentage points[5] Monetary Supply - M2 money supply grew by 7.3% year-on-year in December 2024, while M1 decreased by 1.4%[9] - M0 increased by 13.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in liquidity for enterprises[9] Deposit Trends - New deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan in December 2024, primarily due to declines in non-bank and fiscal deposits[12] - Non-bank deposits fell by 3.17 trillion yuan compared to the same month in 2023, reflecting regulatory changes in interest rate pricing[12] Loan Characteristics - Financial institutions issued 990 billion yuan in new loans in December 2024, with short-term loans and residential loans showing stronger performance compared to medium- and long-term loans[13] - Residential medium- and long-term loans increased by 153.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[13] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to consider "selective reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in early 2025, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and stable financial growth[19] - The People's Bank of China opted for a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 959.5 billion yuan instead of a reserve requirement cut, likely to mitigate pressure on the yuan amid a strengthening US dollar[19] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include a resurgence in global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and increasing international geopolitical complexities[20]