12月美国CPI数据：通胀仍在温和回落的道路上，美联储宽松预期改善

Inflation Data - December CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while core CPI slightly decreased to 3.2%, below the 3.3% forecast[1] - CPI's month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI's month-on-month growth slowed to 0.2%, slightly below expectations[2] Economic Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate decline, with CPI likely reaching a peak, and a high probability of a further drop in Q1 2025[1] - Core inflation is projected to average around 2.6% in 2025, with a potential decline in Q1 followed by a slight rebound in Q2[1] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in egg prices (36.8% year-on-year) and beef prices (4.9% year-on-year)[1] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 4.3%, contributing over 40% to the overall CPI rise, but are expected to stabilize or decline due to geopolitical risks and supply dynamics[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, market expectations for a second rate cut in December 2025 increased to approximately 56%[1] - Major U.S. stock indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 2.45% and the S&P 500 by 1.83%[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include unexpected upward movements in the U.S. economy and labor market, potential liquidity issues in the banking system, and the impact of tariffs and immigration policies[1]