仍然看好板块轮动的机会：美国就业数据保持良好

Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 256,000 in December, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 160,000 and the revised November figure of 212,000[1] - The unemployment rate dropped from 4.23% in November to 4.09% in December, better than market expectations[1] - Permanent unemployment decreased by 164,000 to 1.7 million in December, while temporary layoffs remained stable at 862,000[1] - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) stood at 1.6 million, accounting for 22.4% of total unemployment[1] - Wage inflation measured by average hourly earnings declined slightly from 4.0% to 3.9% year-over-year[1] Job Openings - Job openings in November rose to 8.098 million, surpassing the market expectation of 7.73 million and the revised October figure of 7.839 million[2] - The job openings-to-unemployment ratio increased from 1.07x in Q3 to 1.13x in November[2] - Strong job growth was driven by professional and business services, as well as financial and insurance industries, reaching a two-year high[2] Private Sector Employment - ADP private payrolls showed a slowdown, with 122,000 jobs added in December, down from 146,000 in November and below the market expectation of 140,000[3] - Job switchers' annual wage growth rebounded slightly to just over 7%, while job stayers' wage growth slowed to 4.6% in December[3] - Wage growth trends indicate a continued slowdown, particularly in manufacturing, natural resources, and professional services[3] Market Trends - The US labor market shows mixed signals, with strong NFP and JOLTS data but weaker private sector hiring, possibly due to seasonal adjustments[4] - Manufacturing employment continues to decline, with the ISM manufacturing PMI employment index falling to 45.3 in December, while services PMI employment remains above the expansion threshold[4] - Wage growth moderation eases labor cost pressures, reducing the risk of inflation resurgence and supporting market stability[4] - Market volatility is expected to persist due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, with sector rotation opportunities remaining favorable[4]