Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the laser radar industry, particularly in the context of autonomous driving and smart vehicle applications [1][2] Core Views - The integration of laser radar data with end-to-end autonomous driving models is becoming mainstream, especially with advancements in AI and world models by companies like NVIDIA [2][3] - The laser radar industry is expected to enter the "thousand-yuan era" by 2025, making it more affordable and accessible for mass-market vehicles [4][5] - The competitive landscape is rapidly consolidating, with the "Big Four" (Hesai, RoboSense, Huawei, and Innovusion) emerging as dominant players [5][6] End-to-End Integration with Laser Radar - The debate over the necessity of laser radar in autonomous driving has been influenced by Tesla's pure vision approach, which relies heavily on neural networks and extensive driving data [11][12] - However, with the maturation of end-to-end algorithms and increased computational power, multi-sensor fusion (including laser radar) is no longer in opposition to pure vision systems [18][19] - In China, the complexity of driving conditions and consumer preferences make laser radar a more critical component for autonomous driving systems [26][27] Price Reduction and Market Penetration - The cost of laser radar is expected to drop significantly, with products like Hesai's ATX priced at less than $200, making it feasible for vehicles priced below $20,000 [38][39] - The reduction in cost is expected to drive the adoption of laser radar in both ADAS and non-ADAS applications, such as robotics and autonomous driving [39][40] - Specific driving scenarios, such as AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking), benefit significantly from laser radar, with AEB speed limits increasing by approximately 50% in vehicles equipped with laser radar [43][44] Competitive Landscape and Market Consolidation - The laser radar industry is witnessing rapid consolidation, with the "Big Four" (Hesai, RoboSense, Huawei, and Innovusion) dominating the market [48][49] - Key competitive factors include technological innovation (e.g., detection range, chip self-development, and miniaturization) and mass production capabilities [49][50] - Hesai and RoboSense are leading in terms of market share, with RoboSense capturing 35% of the market in 2024, followed by Huawei (26%), Hesai (24%), and Innovusion (15%) [54][55] Key Players and Technological Advancements - Hesai has achieved significant milestones, including delivering over 279,835 laser radar units in 2024, with a focus on both ADAS and Robotaxi markets [64][65] - RoboSense has made strides in chip development, with its M-Core SoC chip achieving AEC-Q100 certification, paving the way for more cost-effective and compact laser radar solutions [78][79] - Both companies are expanding their presence in the robotics sector, leveraging their technological advancements to capture new growth opportunities [82][83]
通信行业智联汽车系列深度之39暨激光雷达系列之7:激光雷达的降本突围:端到端智驾下沉之选!
申万宏源·2025-01-16 09:13