摩根资产管理：环球市场纵览-中国版一季度多维前瞻

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's policies are expected to accelerate in the first two years, focusing on immigration, trade, and fiscal measures, but aggressive policies may lead to economic disruptions, necessitating adjustments in policy implementation [2][3] - The potential for new tax cuts before the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025 is high, given Republican control of Congress, but this may further increase the fiscal deficit [3][5] - Tariffs may lead to short-term inflation but could also encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S., positively impacting the job market in the long run [3][8] - China's economy is adapting to reduced reliance on U.S. exports and is focusing on domestic demand, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs from the Trump administration [3][12] - The U.S. fiscal deficit could increase by approximately $5 trillion due to Trump's policies, stimulating short-term economic growth but potentially leading to long-term inflation and debt risks [3][6] Summary by Sections Trade Policies - Trump is likely to use tariffs as negotiation tools, with a gradual increase in tariffs to avoid immediate inflation spikes [4][3] - Increased tariffs could raise import prices, leading to short-term inflation but may also support domestic manufacturing [7][8] Economic Impact - The fiscal policies may increase the U.S. fiscal deficit significantly, which could stimulate domestic consumption and economic growth, but also raise inflation expectations [6][3] - The potential for labor shortages due to immigration policies could drive up wages and inflation, while easing high-skilled immigration could mitigate these effects [9][10] Global Economic Effects - The Trump administration's policies are expected to have significant implications for U.S. inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global economic activities [11][20] - China is expected to continue implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth despite potential tariff increases [12][13] Investment Opportunities - The A-share market presents attractive valuation opportunities, with certain sectors expected to benefit from policy implementation and economic recovery [17] - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios with high-dividend stocks and defensive sectors to balance risks amid market volatility [18][19] Market Trends - The U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks, may face valuation pressures, while other sectors could experience rotation as they align with overall economic growth [21][22] - Asian markets, especially Japan and South Korea, are highlighted for their growth potential, with a focus on high-yield strategies for stable returns [23]