长城汽车：发布业绩预告，2024年净利润符合预期

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company released its 2024 performance forecast, with expected net profit attributable to the parent company of 12.413.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7785% [4] - In 2024Q4, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.02.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 028%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 40~22% [4] - The company's sales volume in 2024 was 1.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with 380,000 units sold in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29% [4] - The company's export sales in 2024 reached 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43%, accounting for 37% of total sales, up 11 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The Tank brand sold 230,000 units in 2024, accounting for 19% of total sales, up 6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's domestic and overseas markets are expected to drive significant sales growth in 2025, with domestic sales projected to reach 1.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and overseas sales expected to reach 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company's operating revenue in 2024 is expected to reach 193.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 12.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.7% [5] - The company's operating revenue in 2025 is expected to reach 243.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 15.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8% [5] - The company's operating revenue in 2026 is expected to reach 286.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 18.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [5] - The company's gross profit margin in 2024 is expected to be 20.5%, with ROE expected to be 15.5% [5] - The company's EPS in 2024 is expected to be 1.46 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17 [5] Sales and Product Performance - The company's sales structure has been optimized, with the export proportion increasing to 37% in 2024, up 11 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The Tank brand's sales in 2024 accounted for 19% of total sales, up 6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The Haval brand achieved sales of 230,000 units in Q4 2024, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36%, while the Wey brand achieved sales of 22,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 78% [7] - The company's product competitiveness has significantly improved after model updates, with the Blue Mountain and Menglong models showing rapid sales growth after updates [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to launch multiple new models and updates in 2025, driving domestic sales growth to 1.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46% [7] - The company's overseas sales are expected to reach 550,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%, supported by the upcoming production at the Brazil factory and the launch of multiple models overseas [7] - The company's profitability is expected to continue to improve, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to reach 15.692 billion yuan in 2025 and 18.622 billion yuan in 2026 [5][7]